Hierarchical modeling for extreme values observed over space and time

We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of spatially referenced time series of extreme values. We assume that the observations follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions whose locations and scales are jointly spatially dependent where the dependence is captured using multivariate Markov random field models specified through coregionalization. In addition, there is temporal dependence in the locations. There are various ways to provide appropriate specifications; we consider four choices. The models can be fitted using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to enable inference for parameters and to provide spatio–temporal predictions. We fit the models to a set of gridded interpolated precipitation data collected over a 50-year period for the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, summarizing results for what appears to be the best choice of model.

因子分析法用于降水化学组分地域分布的探讨

本文对成都市区降水化学组分进行了因子分析。通过研究因子计量的空间分布,得到各因子的主要作用区域及降承化学组分的区域分布特征;因子所反映的离子组合关系可能代表某种大气污染源性质或影响降水化学组分的某种物理化学过程。     

厦门市酸雨分布特征与气象条件的关系分析

厦门市是我国酸雨控制区之一。文章利用1992～2005年厦门市的探空、降水量和酸雨资料来分析厦门市不同气象条件对降水酸度、酸雨出现率的影响,分析结果表明:(1)不同等级的降水对降水酸度和酸雨出现率有明显影响,相对于夏、秋二季,冬、春二季的降水酸度更酸,酸雨出现率更高。(2)K指数、850～700hPa层的冷暖平流对酸雨污染没有明显影响。(3)酸雨出现率随着1500m高空风速的增大而增多,风向变化对降水酸度和酸雨出现机率的影响不大。(4)逆温对酸雨污染的有一定的影响。     

Soil-profile distribution of carbon and associated properties in no-till along a precipitation gradient in the central Great Plains

No-till (NT) farming is considered as a potential strategy for sequestering C in the soil. Data on soil-profile distribution of C and related soil properties are, however, limited, particularly for semiarid regions. We assessed soil C pool and soil structural properties such as aggregate stability and strength to 1 m soil depth across three long-term (≥21 year) NT and conventional till (CT) experiments along a precipitation gradient in the central Great Plains of the USA. Tillage systems were in continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) on a loam at Hutchinson and winter wheat-sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]-fallow on silt loams at Hays and Tribune, Kansas. Mean annual precipitation was 889 mm for Hutchinson, 580 mm for Hays, and 440 mm for Tribune. Changes in profile distribution of soil properties were affected by differences in precipitations input among the three sites. At Hutchinson, NT had 1.8 times greater SOC pool than CT in the 0-2.5-cm depth, but CT had 1.5 times greater SOC pool in the 5-20-cm. At Hays, NT had 1.4 times greater SOC pool than CT in the 0-2.5-cm depth. Differences in summed SOC pool for the whole soil profile (0-1 m depth) between NT and CT were not significant at any site. The summed SOC pool with depth between NT and CT were only significant above the 5 cm depth at Hutchinson and 2.5 cm depth at Hays. At Hutchinson, NT stored 3.4 Mg ha⁻¹ more SOC than CT above 5 cm depth. At Hays, NT stored 1.35 Mg ha⁻¹ more SOC than CT above 2.5 cm depth. Moreover, NT management increased mean weight diameter of aggregates (MWDA) by 3 to 4 times for the 0-5-cm depth at Hutchinson and by 1.8 times for the 0-2.5-cm depth at Hays. It also reduced air-dry aggregate tensile strength (TS) for the 0-5-cm depth at Hutchinson and Hays and for the 0-2.5-cm depth at Tribune. The TS (r = −0.73) and MWDA (r = 0.81) near the soil surface were more strongly correlated with SOC concentration at Hutchinson than at Hays and Tribune attributed to differences in precipitation input. Results suggested NT impacts on increasing SOC pool and improving soil structural properties decreased with a decrease in precipitation input. Changes in soil properties were larger at Hutchinson (880 mm of precipitation) than at Hays and Tribune (≤580 mm). While NT management did not increase SOC pool over CT for the whole soil profile, the greater near-surface accumulation of SOC in NT than in CT was critical to the improvement in soil structural properties. Overall, differences in precipitation input among soils appeared to be the dominant factor influencing NT impacts on soil-profile distribution of SOC and soil structural properties in this region.     

Identifying and Evaluating a Suitable Index for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in the Texas High Plains

Drought is a complex and highly destructive natural phenomenon that affects portions of the United States almost every year, and severe water deficiencies can often become catastrophic for agricultural production. Evapotranspiration (ET) by crops is an important component in the agricultural water budget; thus, it is advantageous to include ET in agricultural drought monitoring. The main objectives of this study were to (1) conduct a literature review of drought indices with a focus to identify a simple but simultaneously adequate drought index for monitoring agricultural drought in a semiarid region and (2) using the identified drought index method, develop and evaluate time series of that drought index for the Texas High Plains. Based on the literature review, the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was found to satisfy identified constraints for assessing agricultural drought. However, the SPEI was revised by replacing reference ET with potential crop ET to better represent actual water demand. Data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration network was used to calculate SPEIs for the major irrigated crops. Trends and magnitudes of crop‐specific, time‐series SPEIs followed crop water demand patterns for summer crops. Such an observation suggests that a modified SPEI is an appropriate index to monitor agricultural drought for summer crops, but it was found to not account for soil water stored during the summer fallow period for winter wheat.     

降雨过程后北京城区PM2.5日时空变化研究

随着人类环境意识的增强,人们对城市雾霾天气的忧虑与日俱增,PM2.5的时空变化和对人体健康的影响已成为关注的焦点。以往的研究多集中在不同季节或年际的变化,本文通过统计环保局发布的位于北京城区13个逐时浓度监测点降雨前后PM2.5质量浓度,并在城区布设14个采样点昼夜连续监测一次降雨后72 h内PM2.5质量浓度变化情况,研究北京市城区降雨后PM2.5日变化规律及空间分布特征,由此分析降雨对PM2.5日变化规律的影响。同时对比PM2.5与同步气象数据（温度、相对湿度）和交通数据（车辆量、车速）最值频率分布情况,进而对PM2.5日变化特征进行成因分析。随后利用GIS空间分析方法,分析了PM2.5的日空间分布特征。结果表明,降雨对颗粒物的去除作用明显,一次降雨可使PM2.5质量浓度平均下降56.3%。雨后72 h内PM2.5质量浓度均小于60μg·m-3,降雨后1 h内PM2.5质量浓度处于稳定状态,在随后的12 h内PM2.5浓度值都处于下降状态。降雨过程只降低PM2.5的质量浓度值,并不影响其日变化规律。PM2.5的日变化规律以19时为界,表现出明显的昼夜差异。白天的变化规律呈现凹型,夜间的变化规律呈现拱型。PM2.5质量浓度峰值多出现在23时或0时,谷值多出现在下午15时,该特征受气象因素影响较大,受交通源的影响作用不明显。早高峰期间,PM2.5质量浓度变化主要受交通源的影响;晚高峰期间,交通源和气象因素共同影响PM2.5质量浓度。研究区PM2.5日空间分布特征同样存在明显的昼夜差异。白天PM2.5空间分布特征为南部高北部低;PM2.5在夜间的空间分布特征则多表现为四周高、中心低,三环外围区域多为高值区。     

Understanding the effects of rainfall on elephant-vegetation interactions around waterholes

The distribution of surface water affects herbivore-vegetation interactions in arid and semi-arid regions. Limited access to surface water typically results in the emergence of vegetation gradients around natural and artificial water sources. In particular, African elephants can create large-scale gradients of woody vegetation. Understanding the dynamics of these gradients is of particular importance for the conservation of other, less mobile herbivores that depend on woody vegetation in areas close to water. While rainfall is known to be a key determinant of herbivore-vegetation interactions in dry areas, we only have limited understanding on how it impacts woody vegetation gradients around waterholes. To address this problem, we developed a deterministic simulation model that describes the interplay of rainfall, elephants and woody vegetation in the vicinity of waterholes. The model is based on elephant telemetry data and the ecological conditions in Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia. We found that decreasing amounts of rainfall led to an increased degradation of woody vegetation, which was particularly severe in areas close to water. Based on this result we conclude that low rainfall was an important driver of recently observed patterns of vegetation degradation in ENP. More generally, rainfall appears to be a key factor that determines elephant-vegetation interactions and thus dynamics of woody vegetation gradients around waterholes. Using long-term rainfall data from ENP, we also demonstrate that an increase in the number of water sources during periods of low rainfall can mitigate the destructive impact of elephants in areas close to water. However, more research is required to assess the sustainability and effectiveness of rainfall-adapted strategies of artificial water provisioning in more detail. In particular it is important to investigate potential effects on elephant population dynamics.     

空气微生物采样方法的比较

对3种空气微生物采样方法进行了比较。结果表明,在室外自然条件下,大气细菌粒子的沉降量与大气细菌粒子的浓度、大气真菌粒子的沉降量与大气真菌粒子的浓度均呈显著的正相关关系。对大气细菌粒子,用平皿沉降法分别与A·S采样器法、THK－201采样器法测定的结果相比,有非常显著的差异。平皿沉降法测定结果比后二者方法高出2.9倍和4.0倍;A·S采样器和THK－201采样器测定结果之间没有显著性差异。对大气真菌粒子,A·S采样器法和平皿沉降法与THK－201采样器法均有非常显著性差异;平皿沉降法与A·S采样器法测定结果之间没有显著性差异。进一步用直线回归分析的方法,得出了大气细菌粒子浓度与大气细菌粒子沉降量及大气真菌粒子浓度与大气真菌粒子沉降量之间的关系式。     

ClO2氧化,混凝沉降法处理煤气洗涤水的研究

根据煤气洗涤水的性质,用ClO2 氧化除酚,SL和PAM混凝沉降除悬浮物的方法处理煤气洗涤水。实验结果表明,经处理后废水中的主要污染物酚、焦油和悬浮物等去除率都很高,该水完全可以满足回用要求。     

华北平原潮土酸度特征与酸化敏感性的初步探讨

采集华北平原潮土样品对其酸度特征和酸化敏感性进行了初步探讨.结果显示,过量施用氮肥导致的硝酸盐积累是华北平原潮土pH值下降的重要原因,硝酸根与土壤pH值呈显著负相关.碳酸钙溶解是当前潮土缓冲酸化的主要过程,决定着潮土对外界酸输入的响应方式和敏感程度.随着酸输入量的增加,低碳酸钙土壤的pH值迅速下降,但高碳酸钙的石灰性潮...